Promise Tracker

What humanoid robot makers promised, by when, and what happened. Deadlines are read as the latest date the words allow, and day counts update with today's date. "Past deadline" means no delivery is on record, not a verdict.

Promises by status

5−1 in 30 days

promises past deadline, no delivery on record

010203040

Past deadline5
Open18
Deadline moved4
Delivered · company claim2
Delivered · confirmed2

Counts dated statements, including ones later replaced by a new deadline.

Days late, all promises

2,440+165 in 30 days

days late, all promises combined

01K2K3K

Each day a promise is past its deadline adds one. Days already late stay counted after a deadline moves.

Fourier · GR-11,025 days past deadline

Manufacture 100 GR-1 robots by the end of 2023

Fourier, 13 July 2023 · Production plans reported by New Atlas

Deadline: 2023 (“by the end of 2023”) · Promised: 100 built in total by 2023

Manufacturing target, not shipments.

A later interview with the founder put GR-1 deliveries above 100 by October 2024.

Said: New Atlas, 13 July 2023

Outcome: KrASIA

Figure AI294 days past deadline

Use Figure humanoids to build other humanoid robots during 2025

“This will take place this year.”

Figure AI, 15 March 2025 · BotQ manufacturing facility announcement

Deadline: 2025 (“this year”)

No number of robots or tasks given.

Said: Figure AI, 15 March 2025

Tesla294 days past deadline

Build roughly 10,000 Optimus robots in 2025 (internal plan)

“The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year.”

Elon Musk, 29 January 2025 · Q4 and FY 2024 earnings call

Deadline: 2025 (“by the end of December this year”) · Promised: ~10,000 built in 2025

Musk added that several thousand was more likely than exactly 10,000. A build target, not customer shipments.

In January 2026 Musk described Optimus as still in R&D. Tesla has not published a 2025 build count; Omdia estimated Tesla shipped 150 humanoid robots in 2025.

Said: Tesla · Stock Analysis

Outcome: Stock Analysis · Omdia, 8 January 2026

Tesla294 days past deadline

Produce useful Optimus robots at low volume for Tesla internal use in 2025

Elon Musk, 22 July 2024 · X post reported by Reuters

Deadline: 2025 (“next year”) · Deadline moved once before

"Next year", said in July 2024.

On the January 2026 earnings call, Musk said Optimus did basic tasks in Tesla factories but that its use was still developmental, not material.

Said: Reuters via Investing.com, 22 July 2024

Outcome: Stock Analysis

Tesla · Optimus Gen 3 / V351 days past deadline

Show Optimus V3 around mid-2026

Elon Musk, 22 April 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings call

Deadline: August 2026 (“around mid-2026, possibly closer to production”) · Deadline moved once before

Musk tied the reveal to Fremont production, which he placed in late July or August 2026; read as the end of August.

Said: Stock Analysis

1X · NEO Home RobotOpen · 71 days left

Begin NEO deliveries to consumer homes, primarily in the United States, in 2026

“first orders shipping to consumer homes in 2026”

1X, 28 October 2025 · NEO preorder announcement

Deadline: 2026 (“in 2026”)

First deliveries, not all preorders.

In April 2026, 1X said robots from its new factory were going to its R&D lab and internal home testing first.

Said: 1X, 28 October 2025

Outcome: 1X, 30 April 2026

Boston Dynamics · Atlas (production product)Open · 71 days left

Ship Atlas fleets to Hyundai RMAC and Google DeepMind during 2026

“fleets scheduled to ship”

Boston Dynamics, 5 January 2026 · Product Atlas announcement

Deadline: 2026 (“2026; in the coming months”)

Said: Boston Dynamics, 5 January 2026

Tesla · Optimus Gen 3 / V3Open · 71 days left

Start Optimus Gen 3 production before the end of 2026

“start of production”

Tesla, 28 January 2026 · Q4 and FY 2025 shareholder update

Deadline: 2026 (“before the end of 2026”)

Start of production only; no volume or customer deliveries promised.

Said: Tesla, 28 January 2026

UBTECHOpen · 71 days left

Reach annual industrial humanoid production capacity of 5,000 units by 2026

“annual capacity of 5,000”

UBTECH, 17 November 2025 · Walker S2 production and delivery press release

Deadline: 2026 (“by 2026”) · Promised: 5,000 robots a year of production capacity by 2026

Annual production capacity for industrial humanoids, not deliveries.

Said: UBTECH via PR Newswire, 17 November 2025

Unitree RoboticsOpen · 71 days left

Ship roughly 10,000–20,000 humanoid robots in 2026

“我们应该也会达到一到两万台左右。 (our translation: We should also reach roughly 10,000 to 20,000 units.)”

Wang Xingxing, 17 February 2026 · 36Kr/智能涌现 interview on Lunar New Year’s Eve

Deadline: 2026 (“in 2026”) · Promised: ~10,000–20,000 shipped in 2026

A range for the year, if technical progress continues. The interview took place around midnight on 16–17 February 2026; dated by its publication.

Said: 36Kr/智能涌现, 17 February 2026

XPENG · Next-Gen IRONOpen · 71 days left

Begin IRON mass production in late 2026

“mass production targeted for late 2026”

XPENG, 13 October 2026 · Press release (posted on XPENG's website on 15 October)

Deadline: 2026 (“late 2026”)

"Late 2026" read as the end of 2026. No volume given.

Said: XPENG, 15 October 2026

Agility Robotics · Digit 5Open · 252 days left

Roll out Digit 5 to existing partners in the first half of 2027

“a strategic rollout of Digit 5 to existing partners”

Agility Robotics, 6 October 2026 · Analyst and Investor Day presentation filed with the SEC

Deadline: H1 2027 (“the first half of 2027”)

Rollout to existing partners; no volume given.

Said: Agility Robotics and Churchill Capital Corp XI; SEC exhibit, 6 October 2026

Boston Dynamics · Atlas (production product)Open · 252 days left

Add Atlas customers beyond the initial recipients in early 2027

“add additional customers in early 2027”

Boston Dynamics, 5 January 2026 · Product Atlas announcement

Deadline: H1 2027 (“early 2027”)

"Early 2027" read as the first half of 2027.

Said: Boston Dynamics, 5 January 2026

XPENG · Next-Gen IRONOpen · 252 days left

Begin IRON deliveries in the first half of 2027

“deliveries beginning”

XPENG, 13 October 2026 · Press release (posted on XPENG's website on 15 October)

Deadline: H1 2027 (“the first half of 2027”)

First deliveries; no volume given.

Said: XPENG, 15 October 2026

1X · NEO Home RobotOpen · 436 days left

Scale annual NEO production capacity toward 100,000-plus units by the end of 2027

“toward 100,000+ units annually by the end of 2027”

1X, 30 April 2026 · NEO Factory announcement

Deadline: 2027 (“by the end of 2027”) · Promised: 100,000+ robots a year of production capacity by 2027

Annual production capacity, not deliveries.

Said: 1X, 30 April 2026

1X · NEO Home RobotOpen · 436 days left

Begin expanding NEO deliveries to additional markets in 2027

“expand to other markets starting in 2027”

1X, 28 October 2025 · NEO preorder announcement

Deadline: 2027 (“starting in 2027”)

Start of the expansion; no countries named.

Said: 1X, 28 October 2025

AgiBotOpen · 436 days left

Deliver AgiBot’s 100,000th general-purpose embodied robot by the end of 2027

Wang Chuang, 20 April 2026 · Partner-conference statement reported by Gasgoo, citing coverage from 17 April

Deadline: 2027 (“by the end of 2027”) · Promised: 100,000 shipped in total by 2027

Cumulative deliveries across AgiBot's robots, not deliveries in 2027 alone.

Said: Gasgoo, 20 April 2026

Agility Robotics · Digit 5Open · 436 days left

Make Digit 5 generally available by the end of 2027

“general availability by the end of 2027”

Agility Robotics, 6 October 2026 · Analyst and Investor Day presentation filed with the SEC

Deadline: 2027 (“by the end of 2027”) · Deadline moved once before

Stated with the EU and UK rollout; the same filing says the launch may be delayed or may not occur at all. Replaces the 2025 general-availability target for Digit.

Said: Agility Robotics and Churchill Capital Corp XI; SEC exhibit, 6 October 2026

TeslaOpen · 436 days left

Begin selling humanoid robots to the public by the end of 2027

“I think we'd be selling humanoid robots to the public.”

Elon Musk, 22 January 2026 · World Economic Forum conversation at Davos

Deadline: 2027 (“by the end of next year”)

Phrased as an expectation ("I think").

Said: World Economic Forum, 23 January 2026 · Axios, 22 January 2026 · RealClearPolitics, 25 January 2026

UBTECHOpen · 436 days left

Scale annual industrial humanoid production capacity to 10,000 units by 2027

“scaling to 10,000 units by 2027”

UBTECH, 17 November 2025 · Walker S2 production and delivery press release

Deadline: 2027 (“by 2027”) · Promised: 10,000 robots a year of production capacity by 2027

Annual production capacity for industrial humanoids, not deliveries.

Said: UBTECH via PR Newswire, 17 November 2025

XPENG · Next-Gen IRONOpen · 436 days left

Roll out IRON in Europe in the second half of 2027

“a European rollout”

XPENG, 13 October 2026 · Press release (posted on XPENG's website on 15 October)

Deadline: H2 2027 (“the second half of 2027”)

No countries or customers named.

Said: XPENG, 15 October 2026

Figure AIOpen · 833 days left

A path to 100,000 robots for two commercial customers over the next four years

“Between both customers, we believe there is a path to 100,000 robots over the next four years.”

Brett Adcock, 30 January 2025 · LinkedIn update, reported by John Koetsier

Deadline: January 2029 (“over the next four years”) · Promised: 100,000 shipped in total by January 2029

Phrased as a path Figure believes exists with BMW and a second customer; read as robots delivered to them by January 2029.

Said: John Koetsier, 30 January 2025

ApptronikOpen · no deadline given

Production versions of Apollo in 2027 and beyond

Jeff Cardenas, 30 June 2026 · Interview reported by Reuters via WHBL

Deadline: No deadline given (“in 2027 and beyond”) · Deadline moved once before

No end date given, so no countdown.

Said: Reuters via WHBL, 30 June 2026

Agility Robotics · Digit 4 (industrial redesign)Deadline moved after 279 days overdue

Make Digit generally available during 2025

“general market availability in 2025”

Agility Robotics, 18 September 2023 · RoboFab opening announcement

Deadline: 2025 (“in 2025”)

General availability is distinct from earlier partner deliveries.

Digit has worked with partners such as GXO since 2024. In October 2026 Agility placed general availability with its successor, Digit 5, by the end of 2027.

Replaced by a later promise: see the new deadline

Said: Agility Robotics, 18 September 2023

Outcome: GXO Logistics, 27 June 2024 · Agility Robotics and Churchill Capital Corp XI; SEC exhibit, 6 October 2026

Apptronik · Apollo / Apollo 1Deadline moved after 181 days overdue